Conflict-ravaged Burma Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with major political parties banned, many of their leaders jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The military government is conducting a staggered election nearly half a decade after it seized power in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been charged for disrupting or criticising the election under a new law which carries harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been engaged on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following relentless airstrikes made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the international community," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".