A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
