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"I'll be sitting in this seat by 2027," the Prime Minister remarked, noting that if our conversation was successful, he might invite us into Number 10 for a follow-up conversation in the coming year.

There is rarely ever time off for leaders. In the hour before we sat down, Sir Keir had been on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and working to work out precisely had happened in Venezuela, where his key friend, US President Donald Trump, had recently attacked and captured its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time our lengthy talk, which was much longer than usual, had ended, Maduro had been charged in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

But as the year starts, Starmer seems to have had a degree of a refresh. Perhaps even just a bit of a rest with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

This appeared to have put him in a more positive mood than at the sluggish tail end of 2025, a terrible year politically for him.

But are he and his allies kidding themselves if they reckon his standing are set to improve?

Leadership Questions

The grisly truth for the PM is that numerous of his colleagues are convinced he's ineffective at his job. A faction of them would rather take a risk and get him out sooner rather than later.

But Starmer was dismissing such talk during our conversation on Saturday morning.

Multiple times he insisted he'd be "judged at the poll", maintaining nobody would strip his electoral mandate from him – despite the fact that the optimal path of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK entering No 10 might be for Labour to switch its leader.

"This is the battle of our generation and I intend to guide the party," he declared.

Upcoming Local Votes

The problem for the PM is that he will be assessed well ahead of then – in a major set of elections in May across the UK. He sought to protest, perhaps too much, that they are about who runs local authorities, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

Accurate – to some extent. But although he may be reluctant to acknowledge it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir implying that there were no circumstances under which he would walk away, even if one of his MPs contested his leadership for the job, if those elections prove very poor for Labour.

An Optimistic Outlook

He sought to rationalise his low poll ratings by saying the electorate was reasonably impatient for things to improve. He tried to persuade me, and the nation, that the coming months would be distinct.

The economy would recover despite rising unemployment, he argued, when policies the administration put in place during their initial turbulent year began to take effect.

• He committed to close asylum hotels before the current target date of 2029, although he wouldn't set a new date on that.
• He noted too, with the caveat that it wasn't a done deal, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any point since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He revealed for the first time that Western allies were now talking about how to integrate US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to guard a possible peace.

His core point is that soon the country will "see an improvement".

A Consistent Script

The prime minister may have communicated with renewed vitality than I've seen from him for a while – more relaxed, perhaps, with a longer slot to talk.

However, in spite of encountering pressure from many directions for a more decisive approach, with greater political direction, more dynamism, more speed and more urgency, his explanations were well-known ones.

Given that he is in this much political peril, does he need a new narrative?

No government, and especially not one that has been unpopular for an extended period, gets everything its as desired.

The Prime Minister's problems are not just because governing is challenging, but because he and his team have faltered, including in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The PM admitted that he regretted saying he was "happy" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an backlash when statements he'd previously made – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – surfaced.

Starmer blamed "the system" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying not my fault.

And he is courting clear political dangers as the year unfolds. His friendship with the US president entails a new risk after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over a long period, the notion he would be at ease with this kind of intervention seems unlikely.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He told me he was a "lifelong champion of international law" but the public "just haven't got the full picture at the moment".

Critics wanted him to denounce it before the interview. And the administration is expected to face further scrutiny to give an definitive view in Parliament in the near future.

There has also long been simmering desire in the Labour party to revisit some of the consequences of Brexit.

The PM disputes he's heading in that direction, but his new specific pledge to integrate further with the EU's single market – the vast economic European market – will likely trigger howls that he is going back on his pledge never to try to undo the choices that stemmed from Brexit.

A decision to cosy up to more of the single market will please some on his side of the party, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to